Holiday retail sales are expected to top $1 trillion this year, but that doesn’t mean shoppers are throwing caution to the wind.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts retail sales during November and December will reach $1.013 trillion, a 4.2% increase over 2025. That’s welcome news for retailers preparing for the busiest shopping season of the year.
But another new report suggests small business owners shouldn’t mistake increased spending for carefree consumers.
According to Feedvisor’s 2026 Consumer Commerce Report, conducted with Zogby Analytics, 87% of consumers say economic conditions have changed how they shop.
The message for small retailers? Consumers are still buying, but they’re more selective about where, when, and how they spend their money.
Holiday Sales Are Growing, but Shoppers Are Cautious
NRF’s forecast represents an increase from last year’s $972 billion in holiday retail sales. The projected growth rate is also higher than 2025’s 3.1% increase.
But the forecast measures sales in dollars, not inflation-adjusted purchasing power. And the national numbers don’t tell us how individual retailers will fare.
Feedvisor’s survey of U.S. consumers offers a closer look at the pressures influencing purchasing decisions.
Nearly half (45%) say they’re comparing prices more frequently than they did a year ago. Another 41% are waiting for sales, while 31% are using coupons more often.
For small retailers, that means offering a discount isn’t necessarily enough to win a sale. Customers want to know they’re getting good value, and they’re willing to do the research.
That doesn’t mean small businesses have to compete solely on price. Instead, they need to make it easier for shoppers to understand what makes their products worth buying.
Clear product descriptions, transparent pricing, reliable service, and knowledgeable employees can all help customers feel more confident about their purchases.
Holiday Shopping Is Already Underway
If you’re waiting until November to ramp up your holiday marketing, you may already be behind.
Feedvisor found that 60% of consumers expect to begin most of their holiday shopping by the end of October.
That makes the next couple of weeks especially important for small retailers.
Consumers are spreading out their purchases, looking for deals, and trying to manage holiday expenses rather than waiting until the traditional Thanksgiving shopping weekend.
Small businesses should make sure their holiday merchandise is visible now, both in stores and online.
Highlight gift ideas, promote popular products, and make it easy for customers to find information about availability, shipping deadlines, and return policies.
And don’t assume every shopper is cutting back.
Feedvisor found that 31% of consumers expect to spend more this holiday season, while 33% expect to spend less. Spending plans also vary considerably by age and whether shoppers have children.
The takeaway is that there isn’t one typical holiday shopper. Knowing your own customers and what matters to them is more important than following national trends blindly.
AI Is Changing How Consumers Shop
Artificial intelligence is becoming part of the shopping process, but consumers aren’t necessarily ready to let it take control.
Feedvisor reports that 55% of consumers have used AI to research or compare products during the past six months. Shoppers are using these tools to explore options, compare prices, and help narrow their choices.
But there’s a big difference between asking AI for advice and allowing it to make a purchase.
According to Feedvisor, 62% of consumers say they would never allow an autonomous AI agent to order and pay for products on their behalf without a manual checkout. And while 16% name ChatGPT as a starting point for product searches, only 10% identify it as a place they turn when they’re ready to buy.
For small retailers, this creates both an opportunity and a challenge. AI may be a discovery channel, introducing shoppers to products and businesses they haven’t encountered before. But a recommendation doesn’t automatically translate into a sale.
Retailers still need accurate product information, competitive offers, and trustworthy websites that make customers comfortable completing their purchases.
Trust Matters as Much as Price
Price is important, but it isn’t the only factor driving purchasing decisions.
In Feedvisor’s survey, 33% of consumers identified the lowest price as the single most important factor in deciding where to buy. But trusted brands and customer reviews also influenced those decisions.
That should encourage independent retailers who can’t always match the prices offered by national chains or major online marketplaces. Small businesses have opportunities to distinguish themselves through product expertise, personalized service, and relationships with their customers.
But those advantages need to be visible. Make sure your website answers common questions, your return policies are easy to understand, and your customer reviews reflect genuine experiences.
For online retailers, accurate product details and realistic delivery promises are particularly important. Customers who have to work too hard to verify information may simply move on to another seller.
Small Purchases Still Have Appeal
Even when consumers are watching their budgets, they’re not eliminating every discretionary purchase. Feedvisor found that 56% of shoppers buy small items to improve their mood at least once a month. Among those purchases, 78% cost less than $30.
That’s worth remembering during the holidays, when added stress is often a byproduct of the season.
Affordable gifts, stocking stuffers, small indulgences, and thoughtfully priced merchandise may appeal to shoppers who want to celebrate without overspending.
Retailers can make those products easier to discover by creating gift guides at different price points, highlighting items under $25 or $30, and suggesting inexpensive additions to larger purchases.
The goal isn’t to pressure customers into spending more. It’s to help them find something they feel good about buying.
Act Now!
The NRF forecast is encouraging, but don’t assume rising holiday sales will automatically translate into stronger results for your businesses. While Feedvisor’s research shows consumers are still willing to spend, they’re far more careful about how they do it.
For small retailers, that means focusing on value, making holiday merchandise easy to find, providing accurate product information, and giving customers reasons to trust your business. And with so many shoppers planning to complete much of their holiday buying early, the time to act is now.
You don’t necessarily need the lowest prices or the biggest advertising budget to compete this holiday season. But you do need to give shoppers a compelling reason to choose you.
Rieva Lesonsky is the founder of Small Business Currents, a content company focusing on small businesses and entrepreneurship. You can find her on Twitter @Rieva, Bluesky @Rieva.bsky.social, and LinkedIn. Or email her at Rieva@SmallBusinessCurrents.com.
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