Retailers are looking forward to Super Saturday, which is tomorrow (12/20). But will it be as lucrative as anticipated? Likely yes. The good news, according to RetailNext, is that Super Saturday is still a “key milestone.”
But in even better news for retailers, RetailNext expects shopping on the “extra weekdays (12/22-24) to drive a massive lift in conversion rates, potentially rivaling or even surpassing Black Friday.”
Are you ready? Here are more details from Joe Shasteen, Global Manager of Advanced Analytics at RetailNext.
A Late-Week Christmas Extends Last-Minute Shopping
Since Christmas lands on a Thursday this year, the final stretch of the holiday season plays out differently than in recent years. RetailNext expects shopping urgency to extend into the weekdays of December 22, 23, and 24, giving shoppers additional time to make last-minute decisions rather than concentrating activity into a single peak day. As a result, some of the highest conversion rates of the holiday season are expected in the final days before Christmas, potentially rivaling or even surpassing Black Friday.
Super Saturday Isn’t About Crowds Anymore
Approximately 15% to 18% of overall holiday traffic will visit stores from Super Saturday to Christmas Eve, representing about 2x to 3x Black Friday traffic and 50% more than the entire Black Friday weekend. The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts nearly 159 million shoppers on Super Saturday.
However, total traffic alone is no longer the primary indicator of success. And overall traffic has decreased somewhat compared to last year, so year-over-year declines are still to be expected. Black Friday weekend traffic declined -5.8% year over year—a sign that shoppers are spreading visits across the season rather than concentrating them into a single peak. Super Saturday will likely reflect fewer trips overall, but significantly higher intent per visit.
Shoppers Are Buying Less, and Feeling Better About It
RetailNext expects the mission-driven shopping behavior seen on Black Friday to intensify as Christmas approaches. It says shoppers are arriving with tighter lists and clearer priorities, buying fewer items per trip as time pressure eliminates optional purchases. At the same time, consumers are willing to pay more to get those decisions right. Black Friday through Cyber Monday data showed units per transaction down 1.5%, while average unit retail rose 4.4% year over year, reflecting a focus on quality, gifting relevance, and perceived value.
RetailNext expects this dynamic to peak on Super Saturday, with fewer items per basket but higher confidence and value at checkout. Black Friday also underscored the importance of connecting with customers who visit stores on peak holiday shopping days, as year-over-year Black Friday sales were positive despite the decline in traffic from 2024.
Rieva Lesonsky is the founder of Small Business Currents, a content company focusing on small businesses and entrepreneurship. You can find her on Twitter @Rieva, Bluesky @Rieva.bsky.social, and LinkedIn. Or email her at Rieva@SmallBusinessCurrents.com.
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