Adobe just released its 2025 holiday season online shopping forecast, covering the period from November 1 to December 31.
A Glowing Holiday Online Shopping Season
Adobe expects U.S. online sales to hit $253.4 billion this holiday, up 5.3% from 2024. Consumers are likely to spend over $5 billion in a single day, 10 times this holiday season, up from seven days last year. And Cyber Week sales (the five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, including Black Friday and Small Business Saturday) are expected to account for 17.2% of the overall online holiday spend, reaching $43.7 billion, up 6.3% from 2024.
Cyber Monday retains its crown as the biggest online shopping day of the season—and the year—ringing up $14.2 billion in sales (up 6.3% from last year). Black Friday sales are expected to boast more growth, rising 8.3% over 2024 to $11.7 billion. On Thanksgiving, consumers will likely spend $6.4 billion online (up 4.9%).
Mobile devices will cement their position as the dominant shopping platform, likely driving a record 56.1% share of the online spend (vs. desktop shopping), representing $142.7 billion, up 8.5% from last year.
Buy Now Pay Later Expected to Drive Billions
Given the fragile state of the economy, consumers are seeking ways to manage their holiday shopping budgets, with Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) options expected to drive $20.2 billion in online spending, up 11%, or $2 billion, from last year.
Small retailers should make sure they offer BNPL options, since usage on Cyber Monday is expected to reach record highs, crossing the $1 billion mark. BNPL sales are also expected to be strong on Black Friday, boasting 11% growth from 2024 to $761.8 million. Most BNPL spending is done via mobile devices.
Consumers Expect Holiday Deals
Adobe says retailers will be offering their deepest discounts during Cyber Week, with Cyber Monday being ‘last call’ for the best deals. If you’re interested in scoring deals (as a consumer), Thanksgiving Day will be the best day to shop for sporting goods, the deepest discounts for TVs, toys, and appliances are expected on Black Friday, and Cyber Monday will be the best day to shop for electronics, apparel, and computers.
Adobe says consumers are not simply looking for the lowest price this holiday season. They expect competitive discounts to encourage shoppers “to ‘trade up’ to higher-ticket items in certain categories—allowing individuals to get more value out of their dollar. The share of units sold for the most expensive goods is set to rise by 56% in sporting goods, 52% in electronics, 39% in appliances, 32% in personal care, and 26% in tools/home improvement. The trend reverses in groceries (down 3%) and furniture (down 8%), as shoppers embrace lower-priced items in these categories.”
Top-Selling Product Categories
Over half (53.7%) of online spending this year will be driven by electronics ($57.5 billion, up 4% YoY), apparel ($47.6 billion, up 4.4%), furniture ($31.1 billion, up 6.5%), groceries ($23.5 billion, up 9.2% YoY), and cosmetics ($8.4 billion, up 9.1%).
Online sales of home-related products are also expected to rise, including power tools, home security products, TVs, refrigerators/freezers, and smart home devices. Health monitoring is another growth area, according to Adobe, “with online sales of activity trackers set to rise 1,055%, along with smartwatches (up 950%) and other bio-monitors (up 385%).”
What Influences Online Shopping Behaviors?
AI-powered shopping: Adobe reports that Generative AI-powered chat services and browsers are changing how consumers act online, helping consumers research products before making a purchase. This year, Adobe expects AI traffic to rise by 520% from 2024, peaking in the 10 days leading up to Thanksgiving.
Social influence: Social media advertising is expected to drive a significant amount of holiday sales, rising by 51% over 2024. Last year, social’s impact on sales rose by only 5%.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) will announce its predictions for in-store and online retail sales in early November.
Rieva Lesonsky is President of Small Business Currents, LLC, a content company focusing on small businesses and entrepreneurship. You can find her on Twitter @Rieva, Bluesky @Rieva.bsky.social, and LinkedIn. Or email her at Rieva@SmallBusinessCurrents.com.
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