A record-breaking 202.9 million consumers shopped during the five-day holiday weekend from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday (TDCM), according to a just-released survey from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics. This number surpassed NRF’s initial expectations of 186.9 million shoppers over the holiday weekend.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay says, “This year’s record turnout reflects a highly engaged consumer who is focused on value, responds to compelling promotions, and seizes upon the opportunity to make the winter holidays special and meaningful.”
We have similar but not matching reports on TDCM sales. Here’s the breakdown:
Black Friday Remains the Thanksgiving Weekend Sales Leader
In brief:
NRF
Black Friday remains the top shopping day for both in-store and online sales, attracting 80.3 million shoppers in-store and 85.7 million online. The number of shoppers, both in-store and online, was slightly below 2024’s. Shay says this could be attributed to consumers shopping earlier and earlier (“some started in the summer”) for holiday gifts.
Quilt Software
Andrew Stern, the CEO of Quilt Software, which serves small specialty retailers, reports that their data shows that store foot traffic rose 6% from 2024, but spending per customer was down 2%. Still, he says, the “Net result was positive: +3% same-store sales growth.”
Stern’s takeaway: Black Friday still drove sales growth and traffic despite an uncertain economic environment. However, it pales in comparison to Small Business Saturday for SMBs.
Mastercard
Year-over-year:
- Black Friday sales increased 4.1%
- E-commerce sales rose 10.4%
- Apparel up 5.7%; Jewelry up 2.8%; Restaurants up 4.5%
Adobe Analytics
- Black Friday shoppers spent a record $11.8 billion online, up 9.1% from 2024 and 8.3% more than Adobe’s initial forecast.
- 2% of online sales were via mobile devices ($6.5 billion)
RetailNext
Data from RetailNext, a leading expert in retail intelligence and traffic analytics, shows Black Friday in-store traffic down 3.6%.
Black Friday Traffic by Region—2025 vs 2024
- Midwest: -3.8%
- Northeast: -3.9%
- South: -4.0%
- West: -2.8%
Joe Shasteen, global head of advanced analytics for RetailNext, says the regional declines were “remarkably consistent, signaling that this isn’t a weather story or a local economy story. It’s national. What we’re watching play out is the ‘value era’ of U.S. retail. Shoppers are deal-hungry, inflation-trained, and unwilling to buy outside their priorities.”
Shasteen adds, “Black Friday traffic was down 3.6% this year, and the story isn’t just that shoppers stayed home; it’s that they’re changing how and when they shop. We’re seeing a consumer who is still spending but doing it with surgical precision. They’re waiting for the right price, stretching purchases across a longer promo window, and walking into stores with a far narrower mission than we’ve seen in past holiday seasons.”
Shasteen says the drop in traffic says that “The era of the impulse holiday spree is ending. Consumers are in control, and they’re treating Black Friday as one data point in a much longer hunt for value.”
Small Business Saturday
In-store traffic ramped up over the weekend.
NRF
- 7 million in-store consumers, a slight increase from 61.1 million last year
- 63 million online shoppers, up about 9 million (53.9 million last year)
Prosper Insights’ executive VP of strategy, Phil Rist, says about 80% of consumers who shopped on Saturday did it to support small businesses.
Quilt Software
- Foot traffic flat (+0%) compared to 2024
- Same-store sales: up 4.4%
- Spending per customer: rose 4.5%
- Sales on Small Business Saturday vs. the average Saturday: +12%, making it, Andrew Stern says, “a key sales moment for local retailers.”
Stern’s takeaway: Despite flat foot traffic and the same number of shoppers, [consumers] spent more on average, and retailers generated more sales than last year.
RetailNext
Foot traffic was down 8.6% on Small Business Saturday, but Joe Shasteen says this “wasn’t disinterest, it was intention. Shoppers showed they’re done with the impulse-driven, one-day frenzy. Prices, tariffs, and tighter budgets pushed people to shop with discipline, not adrenaline, and they responded by turning Black Friday into a value calculation.”
Surprising Sunday
A record number of consumers shopped in-store on Sunday.
NRF
- A record-setting 32.6 million consumers shopped in-store, up a significant 27% from 2024
- 7 million shopped online, up from 32.8 million last year
Cyber Monday
The second-most popular shopping day of the Thanksgiving shopping weekend for online sales.
NRF
- 9 million online shoppers, up significantly from 2024’s 64.4 million shoppers
- 9 million consumers shopped online via their mobile phones, making mobile (for the second consecutive year) the most popular way for online shoppers to browse and buy
- 9 million shopped via their computers from home
- 7 million shopped via their work computers
Thanksgiving Weekend Sales
Overall, consumers were shopping all weekend. The NRF reports 129.5 million consumers shopped in-store, up 3% from 2024, and 134.9 million shopped online, up 9%.
Almost all (96%) the Thanksgiving weekend shoppers made a holiday-related purchase, spending $337.86 on average. The NRF says this is up from $315.56 last year and is the highest figure since 2019’s record of $361.90.
Shay and Rist say the weekend’s sales solidify that today’s consumers demand a seamless shopping experience across channels and devices. Rist says, “They will continue to shop across the devices and destinations that best fit their needs.”
Holiday Season Outlook
If you’re a retailer, don’t worry, there’s a lot of shopping left to do. The NRF and Prosper Insights say that while 84% of consumers have already begun their holiday shopping, 53% still have holiday shopping left to do.
For those worried that Gen Z wasn’t much into shopping, Prosper Insights’ Phil Rist reports that 87% of consumers aged 18-24 shopped over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, compared to 76% of all U.S. adults.
Joe Shasteen says there are some lessons we should take from Black Friday’s sales results. First, realize consumers aren’t pulling back, but they are shifting their spending. (The NRF and Prosper Insights see consumers reducing spending on services and travel.) Shasteen says the rising costs for “shelter, food, utilities, and transportation…push households toward sharper tradeoffs.”
In particular, Shasteen says, be aware that:
- The effects of inflation remain high: Tariff increases earlier this year drove up category-level pricing for apparel, home goods, and footwear, the very categories that saw some of the sharpest traffic drops [this weekend].
- Shoppers expect month-long deals. Shoppers drew clear lines on what they considered a “real deal,” and were willing to walk away if the math didn’t add up.
- The value-driven consumer is now the default consumer. Discretionary categories such as home (-15.5%) and health & beauty (-9.6%) saw some of the steepest declines, as households prioritized essentials.
The NRF’s Shay says the holiday weekend sales confirm their overall forecast for holiday spending is on track to surpass $1 trillion for the first time ever.
Rieva Lesonsky is President of Small Business Currents, a content company focusing on small businesses and entrepreneurship. You can find her on Twitter @Rieva, Bluesky @Rieva.bsky.social, and LinkedIn. Or email her at Rieva@SmallBusinessCurrents.com.
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