If there’s one word that captures how small business owners are feeling right now, it’s uncertain. Technology is moving fast, AI is everywhere, costs remain stubborn, hiring feels frozen in some industries and overheated in others—and yet, optimism hasn’t disappeared. In fact, it’s quietly reshaping how entrepreneurs think about growth, work, and opportunity heading into 2026.
As Andrew Chamberlain, the principal economist at Gusto, shared on its blog, “America’s small business economy enters 2026 at an inflection point. Strong confidence among business owners about their companies today coexists with stubborn economic headwinds and pessimism about the U.S. economy. [But] small businesses are remarkably good at finding ways to grow and innovate despite whatever barriers the macroeconomy throws at them. Taken together, our view of the small business economy in 2026 is one of cautious optimism.
This first installment of my annual predictions series looks at where that optimism is turning into action. From the rise of solopreneurs and AI-powered startups to smarter approaches to hiring, technology, and operations, these insights reflect a small business community that’s adapting—not retreating. You’ll notice a common theme throughout: Successful businesses aren’t chasing every trend; they’re using practical tools, clearer focus, and better decision-making to move forward with confidence.
Think of this article as a landscape view of what’s ahead. Not every prediction will apply to every business—and that’s okay. The goal is to help you spot the shifts that matter to you, understand how other business owners are responding, and start thinking about how 2026 could work in your favor.
Startup & Growth
2026: The Year AI Turns Employees Into Entrepreneurs
Companies spent billions on AI to retain talent and boost productivity. Instead, they’re creating their own competition. In 2026, we’ll see workers leaving not for other jobs, but to pursue ideas they’ve been waiting to build as AI makes the leap easier than ever before
AI has dismantled the operational barriers that would have stalled would-be founders. Bookkeeping, invoicing, customer service, marketing—tasks that once required entire teams now need just a founder and a few AI tools. The skills gap that made entrepreneurship feel impossible is vanishing.
BILL research reveals the scale of this shift: 65% of small-business leaders say AI is making it easier to start a new business, with 61% saying it’s making it easier to survive the critical first year. The “Fortune 5 Million” isn’t a future trend. It’s happening now, powered by workers who realized AI made them more valuable on their own than in a corporate structure.
—Sarah Acton, Chief Customer Officer, BILL
The New Path To Wealth is Building It Yourself
Building something yourself, rather than working for someone else, has long been part of the American dream. Sometimes, this means creating a business that hires employees. Often, it means doing everything yourself. Over 80% of all U.S. small businesses are now owner-only operations – what we call solopreneurs. And our research shows that this trend isn’t a post-pandemic blip or a gig economy sideshow. It’s a structural shift in how Americans build wealth and careers.
Gusto data shows that solopreneurs today earn 25% more than similarly skilled employees by their fifth year in business, and 77% report profitability in year one. And the demographics of this shift are compelling: women now start nearly half of all new businesses (up from 29% in 2019), and immigrants represent 14% of solopreneurs, double their share among employer businesses.
In 2026, we expect solopreneurship to be increasingly recognized not as a fallback, but as a first-choice career path—or as a viable path to boost earnings for 50+ workers nearing retirement age.
—Andrew Chamberlain, Principal Economist, Gusto
Optimism is Fueling Strategic Action Toward Sustainable Growth
The 2025 Bank of America Business Owner Report revealed that business owners are entering 2026 with cautious yet determined optimism. Three in four business owners expect their revenues to increase, and more than half plan to expand their businesses. These business owners are focused on steady growth, practical decision making, and a readiness to invest where it matters.
Heading into 2026, business owners are taking strategic action toward growth by prioritizing reaching new customers (47%), hiring more staff (43%), expanding their products or services (39%), and exploring fresh marketing strategies (35%).
Growth powered by digital innovation
Digital innovation remains a reliable path for efficiency and growth. According to our report, nearly all business owners plan to adopt more digital tools in the next five years, helping them remain competitive and improve employee efficiency. Implementing technology, like AI, can help streamline repetitive tasks and allow employees to focus on more strategic work.
While the exact applications vary by industry and company, broadly, we can expect to see businesses leverage digital tools to improve operational management and efficiency, enhance customer experience, and strengthen company and customer data security.
—Sharon Miller, President of Business Banking, Bank of America
The AI Gap Will Separate Builders from Strugglers
Businesses that integrate AI thoughtfully as a strategic lever will gain a competitive edge over those that don’t. I call it “practical AI.” Savvy business owners will utilize tech tools that buy back their time, organize their data in meaningful ways, and create better customer experiences.
—Brian Moran, CEO, Small Business Edge
SMBs Innovating with AI Will Drive Revenue and Productivity Gains
In 2025, SMBs proved to be drivers of innovation amid uncertainty, with 47% of SMB leaders who maintained steady confidence throughout 2025 crediting their success to unwavering commitments to AI, flexible talent, and bold experimentation. Now, in 2026, more SMBs will move beyond simple AI adoption, like basic content generation, and fundamentally restructure core business processes to be AI-first. This shift will ensure that AI directly boosts the bottom line, rather than just being an add-on to the tools they are already using. They will use AI-powered assistants for digital triage, driven by the need to combat “infinite workday” burnout and to ensure their small teams spend time on focused work rather than constant coordination.
The data points us in this direction, too, as 93% of SMBs that used AI to scale reported increases in revenue, with 82% reporting AI-related cost reductions. Highly confident SMB leaders are already embedding AI, with 27% infusing it into front-office functions (sales, marketing, customer service) and 23% using it to optimize finance and operations.
—Gabby Burlacu, Senior Manager, Upwork Research Institute
AI
The Most Successful Companies Will Disaggregate Their AI “Stew”
A lot of organizations still treat AI like one big, complicated stew where everything is mixed together, hard to manage, and even harder to get value from. By 2026, the best companies will take a different approach: they’ll “disaggregate” their AI, breaking it up into clear, manageable pieces that can be tailored for their specific needs (like collaboration, security, or customer experience).
This isn’t a one-size-fits-all thing; every industry, whether it’s healthcare, finance, or manufacturing, will need its own recipe. That’s how companies will unlock real value and stay agile as AI evolves.
—Snorre Kjesbu, SVP & GM of Collaboration, Cisco
AI Agents Go Local
In the final months of 2025, the right conditions converged to support widespread adoption of AI agents among SMBs. This business segment stands to benefit from AI tools that can enable the productivity they need to automate critical workflows and go head-to-head with major brands. Obstacles, such as financial investment, technical skills gaps, and limited opportunities to build useful AI agent implementations beyond personal productivity, have impeded this potential.
Now we’re observing a proliferation of tools that democratize this technology (like AI-powered coding tools and agent builders) and early signs that major consumer LLMs may open their interfaces to third-party apps; these technical barriers to implementation are breaking down. But more importantly, AI in small businesses is evolving from individual or point solutions to address more critical workflows. This frees up smaller workforces to apply their creativity to higher-order tasks, potentially opening new lines of business they had not previously been able to offer customers. Due to the flexibility of SMBs and the deep understanding they have of their value to customers, they may be better positioned than larger enterprises to harness these opportunities to reshape their daily operations.
—Andy Sweet, VP of Enterprise AI Solutions, AnswerRocket
Workplace
Small Business Hiring Will Rebound After Two Years of the “Great Freeze”
The past two years have been tough for economists trying to read small business hiring data. With the federal government shutdown and delayed employment reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, private data has been our only guide for the state of the job market this fall.
Our new Gusto Small Business Jobs Report shows that small business hiring in November 2025 was essentially flat—a modest loss of 2,000 jobs nationally—following October’s revised decline of nearly 38,000 jobs. Over the past 12 months, small businesses have averaged about 40,000 net hires per month, well below the 170,000-per-month pace of the post-pandemic hiring surge in 2021.
Some economists have called today’s hiring environment the “Great Freeze,” as employers aren’t laying off workers en masse but aren’t hiring either. What’s behind this slowdown? There are many theories, but elevated interest rates in the past two years have certainly impacted small businesses by making borrowing costs much more expensive. Similarly, uncertainty around tariffs and AI has made some business owners cautious about expanding their teams.
Whatever the cause, one thing we see clearly in our data is that the bottom is not falling out of the small business economy: small businesses aren’t collapsing; they’re waiting. With the Federal Reserve now actively cutting interest rates and easing business borrowing costs that have weighed on hiring for over two years, we expect small business hiring to gradually thaw and rebound in 2026. Today, hiring in healthcare and construction in our data is already leading the way—watch for other sectors to rebound as well as borrowing costs come down.
—Andrew Chamberlain, Principal Economist, Gusto
Specialized, Flexible Talent Will Become the Primary Source of Innovation in SMBs
In 2026, SMBs will gain an edge over their enterprise counterparts with access to specialized skills. Scaling will be achieved by expanding team capabilities with flexible, independent talent, which is more durable in times of uncertainty than traditional headcount growth.
In fact, 31% of highly confident SMB leaders already use freelancers to access specialized expertise in areas like AI, data science, and strategy—skills that would otherwise be difficult or expensive to attain full-time. This trend is accelerating, with job postings requiring freelance AI expertise rising 44% between January and July 2025. Expect to see more SMBs and businesses lean on flexible talent for AI expertise, especially as this trend continues, as large enterprises continue to lay off full-time talent in 2026.
—Gabby Burlacu, Senior Manager, Upwork Research Institute
Work From Anywhere Will Become Work Anytime
Back-to-office mandates have pulled many workers back to the office, but WFH habits die hard. Many tech workers are used to logging in at times convenient for their schedules or work habits. Our usage data early this year showed heavy data transfer on Fridays, an indication that ‘work from anywhere’ employees actually put in longer hours than their ‘9 to 5’ counterparts—with heavy usage starting at 7 am and continuing until 7 pm.
In 2026, we expect to see more workers logging in both at the office and at home in their off-hours, which may temporarily increase productivity, but burn workers out more quickly. Companies will need to focus on worker experience as well as productivity.
—Prakash Mana, CEO, Cloudbrink
AI in the Workplace
A True Partnership Between People and Technology
Next year, the workplace will look and feel very different from what we’re used to. The workplace will be about people working side by side with technology. That means you’ll see more “agents” (think AI helpers and robots) assisting with tasks, not necessarily looking like something out of science fiction, but integrated into our day-to-day routines. The line between human and digital collaboration will blur, and the companies that do this well will be the ones that figure out how to bring people and technology together in smart, meaningful ways.
—Snorre Kjesbu, SVP & GM of Collaboration, Cisco
AI’s Role in the Business Will Continue to Expand
Due to this expansion, in 2026, a working understanding of how to use these tools effectively will become a basic requirement for many roles. Employees will be increasingly expected to apply AI appropriately, recognizing where it should be used to support their work and where its limitations require human judgment. To support that capability at scale, HR will need to integrate AI fluency into hiring, onboarding, and ongoing development so teams can stay effective and competitive.
Many organizations are already seeing a gap between the speed of AI deployment and employees’ ability to use it effectively. I expect that gap to widen next year unless companies invest in training and establish clear expectations and guardrails for how AI is used internally.
I also expect a growing number of organizational leaders to recognize that AI’s impact on productivity depends not just on the technology itself, but also on the culture and systems that guide how work gets done. HR’s remit has broadened meaningfully in recent years, and as more routine tasks are automated, the people function will play a central role in helping organizations use AI effectively and responsibly. That includes setting expectations, strengthening decision-making skills, and giving employees the structure they need to understand when context matters and when to question AI outputs.
The companies that will see real returns on investment from AI next year will be those that put as much focus on their people and workflows as on the tools themselves.
—Stacey Richey, Global VP, People, Smartcat
AI Will Increasingly Become a Small Business Equalizer
The conventional narrative around AI is that it will (eventually) replace workers. But that may mostly be a prediction about how AI will impact hiring at large, enterprise companies. For the 99% of U.S. companies that are small businesses—and the roughly half of the workforce employed at small companies—AI is shaping up to be something different: a force multiplier that helps lean teams punch above their weight.
Gusto research found that over 60% of small business owners believe AI helps level the playing field with larger competitors. And they’re not doing it through layoffs—95% of small businesses that regularly use generative AI aren’t cutting headcount. Instead, they’re upskilling employees and expanding what their existing teams can accomplish.
This year, small businesses hired as many AI-titled employees as in the previous four years combined. That’s not a story about job destruction—it’s a story about capability expansion. In 2026, we expect this trend to accelerate as AI tools become cheaper, easier to use, and more widely adopted by very small businesses.
—Andrew Chamberlain, Principal Economist, Gusto
Intelligent Websites Power SMB Growth Under Economic Pressure
As inflation remains stubborn and supply-chain strains continue to squeeze margins, 2026 will be the year websites evolve from simple online presences into intelligent growth engines. To navigate uncertainty and intensified competition, SMBs will need sites that help them get the most from every marketing dollar and every customer interaction.
AI-powered insights will guide founders to optimize content, anticipate opportunities, and act before challenges arise. Creative tools will evolve the site visually and functionally as the business scales, ensuring seamless continuity as founders grow in sophistication and ambition. In this era, the website itself becomes a partner in driving revenue and efficiency, helping SMBs navigate economic pressures while positioning them for long-term growth.
—Sachin Puri, CEO, Bluehost
AI Collaboration Will Go Beyond People-to-People—It’ll be People-to-AI and AI-to-AI
We’re used to talking about closing the distance between people, but by 2026, we’ll also be closing the gap between people and AI, and even between different AIs. We’ll start relying more on AI coworkers or specialists who can handle everything from summarizing meetings to translating languages to even offering expert recommendations. On top of that, different AI agents will work together behind the scenes, monitoring each other and collaborating to solve problems faster. The future of work is about “connected intelligence,” where humans and AIs all contribute as part of the same team.
—Snorre Kjesbu, SVP & GM of Collaboration, Cisco
Distinguishing Substance from Hype
Much of the hype in HR tech focuses on AI replacing the function or transforming talent management overnight. The real substance in 2026 will be far more practical. HR leaders will need to balance using AI to streamline their own routine work with their broader responsibility to enable the organization. AI will help teams streamline routine work, strengthen judgment through better insights, and support more consistent decision-making across the organization. HR’s value will continue to come from empathy, culture-building, conflict resolution, and context setting.
ROI of AI in the Business
In 2026, a working understanding of how to use AI effectively will become a basic requirement for many roles. The organizations that see the most value from AI will be the ones that strengthen the culture and systems that guide how employees use these tools in their day-to-day work.
Readiness Gap and Leadership Responsibility
Many companies are already seeing a gap between the speed of AI deployment and employees’ ability to use it effectively, and I expect that gap to widen next year unless leaders put the right support in place. The companies that do this well will be the ones that focus as intentionally on their people and workflows as they do on the technology itself.
—Stacey Richey, Global VP, People, Smartcat
Employees Need Oversight Before Using AI
One of the biggest risk blind spots emerging for small businesses in 2026 will be employees using AI tools, especially agentic AI, without proper governance, which can lead to incorrect client deliverables, privacy breaches, and even IP leakage. That lack of oversight will drive more professional liability and cyber events, and in many cases, blended losses that are harder for businesses to prepare for.
Tim McDermott, Director, P&C Insurance Product Management, NEXT Insurance
When it comes to digital tools and technology platforms, I see a significant increase in small businesses expanding and diversifying their sales channels and experimenting with agentic commerce. There will also be healthy growth in in-person sales channels and collaborations, as small business owners become more aware of—and leverage—the benefits of a dual offline/online strategy that improves the customer experience and enables them to engage with— and learn from — these customers to test new concepts and innovate.
—Karen Kerrigan, president & CEO, Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council
Business Operations
Small Business Policy Outlook
Last year, I made several predictions about federal policies and legislation, as policy can impact the business environment for better or worse. As predicted, all the expiring provisions in the 2017 tax bill were made permanent or improved by mid-year, including the restoration and small-business modifications to immediate expensing for research and development. This tax certainty, along with some regulatory improvements, has counterbalanced the effects of tariffs for many small businesses, according to our surveys, although they remain painful for those in tariff-sensitive sectors.
In this regard, I believe tariff policy will become more stable and less erratic. There is also a very good chance that the Supreme Court will reverse the bulk of President Trump’s tariffs, which will provide cost relief for small businesses. Still, when it comes to overall costs and the pinch many small businesses are feeling, the year-over-year effects of inflation will continue to be a pain point for small businesses. Many inflation-induced “fixed” costs will be hard to reduce in the short term, with some exceptions, such as energy costs. That being the case, I believe we will continue to see a leveling off of inflation and a little more certainty in this area.
On other small business “pain points,” I see legislation in the first quarter of 2026 making it to the President’s desk that will boost capital availability and access and provide small businesses and individuals with more choices in health insurance (and at lower costs).
The Administration will continue to focus on food quality and content—banning or further regulating ingredients in processed and “fast” food, and changes to the food pyramid. The trends and market momentum have been quite vigorous in the health and wellness space— including the focus on movement, social engagement, sleep quality, and mental health—which will continue to offer more opportunities for entrepreneurs and small businesses.
I also see significant disruption in the educational realm, where high school students and graduates are increasingly considering career paths and educational options outside of the four-year college path—as they question the value of the college investment and its relevancy to jobs and opportunities in the marketplace. In response to the big increase in interest in the trades and technology careers (cybersecurity, etc.), not requiring four (or even two) year degrees, there will be more affordable educational experiences and certifications that continue to emerge. With that, there will be more opportunities for entrepreneurs.
—Karen Kerrigan, president & CEO, Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council
Surging Health Insurance Costs Will Spark Innovation, Not Abandonment
The numbers on health insurance costs facing small businesses today are painful. Our research shows that premiums for the smallest employers now approach $8,500 per employee per year—the highest of any employer size—and that health premium costs for small companies are up 23% since 2022, far outpacing inflation. In 2026, some industry analysts project another 10-11% increase in those costs, the highest increase in 15 years.
However, this year we learned that despite these cost increases, small businesses are finding creative ways to keep health coverage for their employees. Gusto data show that the share of small businesses offering health benefits has remained remarkably stable—partly because small business owners have learned that employees with health insurance are 25% less likely to quit in their first year.
In 2026, we expect to see a story of innovation and adaptation unfold for health benefits among small business owners. That will include adopting HSA-eligible plans—which have grown from 33% to nearly 48% in just six years—as well as rising interest in level-funded plans and health reimbursement arrangements, as small business owners find creative ways to maintain coverage while managing costs.
Expect to see continued innovation in how small businesses structure health benefits in 2026—giving more control and flexibility to employees as a way of controlling costs—rather than companies retreating from offering health benefits.
—Andrew Chamberlain, Principal Economist, Gusto
Embrace the Power of Saying “No”
In 2026, business owners will finally realize that they don’t need to chase every shiny new object and instead double down on what drives results. This is the year business owners say ‘no’ to distractions, and ‘yes’ to high-impact work. Focus is the name of the game in 2026.
—Brian Moran, CEO, Small Business Edge
Rising Prices
In 2026, firms will stop competing on price and start competing on partnership. Clients are looking for trusted advisors, not transactional relationships. When firms show up with insight, transparency, and care, they’ll have no reason to undercharge for their expertise.
—Tammy Hahn, SVP of Product, Ignition
Clarity Will Outperform Hustle
In business, it doesn’t matter how fast you go or how hard you work if you’re going in the wrong direction. I predict that in 2026, business owners will embrace the mantra “work smarter, not harder.” They will learn the value of crafting a GPS Plan and treating it as a trusted advisor.
Remember this rule: Hustle has a shelf life; clarity doesn’t. To succeed in business, you must know where you’re going and how you plan to get there. Otherwise, you measurably increase the odds of falling short of your goals.
—Brian Moran, CEO, Small Business Edge
Legal
Costs Will Continue to Rise
The rising costs and widespread impact of nuclear verdicts will continue to unfold in 2026. In 2024, juries awarded more than $31 billion across 50 industries in outsized and disproportionate verdicts, a trend that accelerated through 2025. As one of the leading drivers of social inflation, nuclear verdicts, combined with general inflation and rising tariffs, will keep pushing up insurance premiums, healthcare costs, and everyday prices.
Businesses will have to absorb and offset costs from these unjust awards. Small and midsize companies will also face mounting liability expenses that drain cash reserves, make obtaining insurance difficult if not insurmountable, and implicate viability. The path forward to addressing these verdicts will need to happen at their source: the courtroom. Defusing jury anger, limiting and disclosing third-party litigation funding, and increasing transparency and collaboration in award calculations will be critical to curbing these excessive jury awards in the year ahead.
—Robert Tyson, Founding Partner, Tyson & Mendes Law Firm
Technology
Protection Against Cyber Threats
Rapid technological innovation means small businesses must remain vigilant to protect themselves against cyber threats. Implementing technology, such as new payment systems or cloud-based solutions, can streamline operations and enhance efficiency. However, it can also introduce new potential vulnerabilities or weaknesses cybercriminals will look to exploit.
It’s crucial that small business owners thoroughly vet and monitor these technologies to reduce cyber risk. Taking proactive steps, such as implementing multifactor authentication, performing regular data backups, and conducting employee training on best practices, can also help to safeguard operations. Additionally, securing cyber liability coverage provides an extra layer of protection, covering costs associated with data breaches and other cyber incidents.
According to the 2025 Travelers Risk Index, only 43% of small businesses have cyber insurance. Work with a trusted insurance agent and carrier to determine what’s right for your business. Being cyber-aware is not just a necessity; it is a strategic advantage in today’s digital landscape.
—Erin Rodliff, President, Small Commercial, Travelers
Investments in Technology and T&E Could Help Position SMBs for Success
SMBs are the definition of resilient—they can often pivot strategies faster than large, multilayered organizations—and they know that volatility will continue in 2026. In response, most SMBs are keeping strong cash and risk buffers while funding a tight set of growth bets, including investments in technology and smart business travel.
Continued technology adoption, from basic automation to agentic AI, will help SMBs drive material, measurable improvements in efficiency, visibility, and controls. Organizations that start by adopting AI within the tools they already use and invest in applications that sit on top of relevant, reliable business data will help reduce risks and accelerate adoption across their workforce.
SMBs should invest in travel that delivers real ROI, and they will look to technology to offer employees more choice and autonomy while prioritizing safety, sustainability, and cost control. The promise of AI is to deliver the best of both: benefits to the business and great employee experience.
Pre-spend controls, such as virtual cards and dynamic card controls, will also be gamechangers in how organizations control spend, lower risk, and reduce the burden of cash outlay for business expenses.
Unpredictability will continue to drive SMBs toward cost control and stability wherever possible. SMBs see the highest ROI from initiatives that help improve cash flow and automate business processes. T&E is a large, controllable spend category, and SMBs that continue to view it as an investment in business development and growth are likely to thrive in 2026.
—Kacey Flygare, General Manager and Global Business Head, SMB, SAP Concur
Websites
Small Businesses Begin Running on Enterprise Power
Following a year marked by significant internet outages, business leaders now understand the high cost of downtime—even brief disruptions during critical periods like peak shopping or product launches can result in thousands in lost revenue and lasting damage to customer trust.
Outages cost businesses of all sizes billions in 2025, with high-impact outages averaging $2 million per hour. Next year, websites will be able to anticipate traffic surges, reroute visitors during interruptions, and optimize performance in real time—giving businesses the confidence that their sites can keep driving growth no matter what happens online.
—Sachin Puri, CEO, Bluehost
Global Trade
Powering the New Global Economic Reality
What used to be pretty straightforward on how to take a business global has become far more complicated due to tariffs, regulatory compliance, data privacy rules, classification of workers (employment laws), localization of offerings for each region’s cultural and legal norms and the fact that it’s just plain hard to find customers willing to buy your products in a highly competitive world market.
What’s a business owner to do in 2026? Fight it off! Push harder on the e-commerce front, where the rise of that industry and remote work are making it far more realistic for even small firms to sell and hire internationally.
Key trends to watch:
The biggest trend is that small businesses will have to be more intentional and deliberate with their planning than in previous years to power the new global economic reality.
Second, with technology advancing rapidly, specifically AI, smart tech is becoming the backbone of global expansion strategies, with most small businesses investing in AI, automation, cloud tools, and CRM to manage operations and customer relationships across borders. These tools help small firms localize marketing, support global customers, and coordinate distributed teams without building heavy physical infrastructure in every market.
Third, the humanistic side of business will become ever more important as we overuse AI to boost efficiency and revenue. Where business owners think they are serving their customers better with AI, they may not be. In the end, customers won’t be asking for more bots—they’ll be looking for genuine human attention and clear proof that they’re valued and respected.
Lastly, I see additional trends in high-growth niches such as tech-enabled services, sustainability, health, veteran support, and other innovation-driven areas that will give small businesses a chance to differentiate and plug into larger global value chains.
View global expansion as one of the many powerful tools in your growth strategy. Don’t bet everything on it, but use it strategically to gain that extra edge in 2026.
—Laurel Delaney, Founder and President, Women Entrepreneurs Grow Global® and Founder, GlobeTrade.com
Navigating the Realities
Looking ahead to 2026 from an import perspective, our outlook continues to reflect the realities we’ve navigated throughout 2025. Although we have sourced products from China for more than 30 years, the tariff volatility this past year prompted us to explore a wide range of alternatives across Asia and the Middle East in search of cost-competitive options to offset rising duties.
What we found was consistent: While many countries offer attractive labor costs, they lack the deep manufacturing infrastructure that gives China its unique advantage. China’s ecosystem of large factories supported by surrounding small- and medium-sized suppliers—providing components, trims, colors, and specialized parts—enables high-volume, high-quality, and highly detailed production at competitive prices. Countries such as Thailand, Cambodia, Bangladesh, Egypt, and Turkey simply do not yet have that level of integrated support. Many can produce basic items, but complex, design-heavy products remain a challenge.
We also evaluated U.S. manufacturing. While current domestic capabilities and cost structures make it difficult to maintain consumer-acceptable price points today, we remain optimistic. We are actively and continuously seeking U.S.-based partners who may be able to support portions of our product line in the future. As domestic innovation grows and new technologies emerge, we believe opportunities will eventually open for meaningful local production with major retailers.
Ultimately, for 2026, China remains the only partner able to deliver the scale, complexity, quality, and competitiveness our products require. As a result, we will continue manufacturing there. Regarding tariffs, we’ve had to distribute the impact across the value chain—absorbing part of it ourselves and having retailers adjust their price points accordingly—while striving to minimize the effect on the end consumer.
—Adam Rizza, CEO, Sunscape Inc.
Cross-Border Entrepreneurship Accelerates
Global founders building local businesses will emerge as one of the fastest-growing borrower segments. Lenders must adapt by adopting platforms that support multi-currency workflows and international credit scoring.
—Rohit Arora, CEO, Biz2Credit | Biz2X
Adding Services
More SMBs will embrace AI to add multilingual customer support and provide on-demand translated content.
—John Yunker, Founder, Byte Level and Global By Design
Rieva Lesonsky is the founder of Small Business Currents, a content company focusing on small businesses and entrepreneurship. You can find her on Twitter @Rieva, Bluesky @Rieva.bsky.social, and LinkedIn. Or email her at Rieva@SmallBusinessCurrents.com.
