Deloitte recently released its annual holiday retail forecast, predicting, “Holiday retail sales are likely to increase between 2.3% and 3.3% this year,” totaling $1.58 trillion to $1.59 trillion from November to January 2025. Last year, holiday sales grew by 4.3%.
E-commerce will be “a key driver of overall retail sales growth.” Deloitte forecasts e-commerce will likely grow between 7% and 9% to between $289 billion and $294 billion this season.
An economist at Deloitte Insights says, “Although the pace of increase in holiday sales will be slower than last year, we expect that healthy growth in disposable personal income (DPI), combined with a steady labor market, will support a solid holiday sales season.”
However, he cautions, “Rising credit card debt and the possibility that many consumers have exhausted their pandemic-era savings will likely weigh on sales growth this season compared to the previous one.”
Deloitte says consumers want to “take advantage of online deals to maximize their spending.” It adds, “Retailers who focus on building loyalty and trust with consumers could be well positioned for success.”
A forecast from Salesforce reports this holiday shopping season could be “especially challenging for retailers as they compete for shoppers with less purchasing power than in past years.” The concern: “With the fewest number of days between Thanksgiving and Christmas since 2019 and 43% of consumers carrying more debt than they were in 2023,” Salesforce worries retailers will have a tough time converting shoppers into buyers.
Data from the Salesforce Shopping Index agrees that “shoppers are particularly price-conscious right now,” with “67% of global shoppers saying prices will dictate where they shop in 2024, with less than one-third prioritizing the quality of the goods.”
Salesforce recommends retailers use:
- strong and strategic discounts to appeal to and convert shoppers
- AI to augment employees, increase operational efficiency, build deeper customer relationships, and drive higher margins
Salesforce predicts sales growth of 2% for November and December, reaching $277 billion in holiday sales. And it expects 21% of holiday purchases will be made on Chinese shopping apps, including Temu, Shein, AliExpress, and TikTok, which boasted a 24% increase in the number of shoppers who report making a purchase through the app since April of 2024.
Make it convenient
Consumers not only want deals, but they also want convenience. BOPIS (Buy Online, Pickup In-Store) remains a popular retail option, with Salesforce predicting it will drive 33% of global online orders the week before Christmas.
Busiest shopping days
About 67% of shoppers surveyed by Salesforce say they’re waiting until Cyber Week to make big purchases because they think that’s when they’ll get the best deals. Salesforce expects the average discount rate to reach up to 30% during Cyber Week.
Chain Store Age (CSA) reports that Sensormatic Solutions predicts the 10 busiest shopping days will be:
1. Friday, Nov. 29 – Black Friday
2. Saturday, Dec. 21 – Super Saturday
3. Monday, Dec. 23 – Monday Before Christmas
4. Sunday, Dec. 22 – Sunday before Christmas
5. Saturday, Dec. 14 – Second Saturday before Christmas
6. Saturday, Nov. 30 – Saturday after Black Friday
7. Thursday, Dec. 26 – Boxing Day
8. Saturday, Dec. 7 – 3rd Saturday before Christmas
9. Saturday, Dec. 28 – Saturday after Christmas
10. Friday, Dec. 20 – Friday before Christmas
Find more information about holiday shopping:
Rieva Lesonsky is President of Small Business Currents, LLC, a content company focusing on small businesses and entrepreneurship. Email Rieva at rieva@smallbusinesscurrents.com, follow her on Twitter @Rieva, and to get the scoop on business trends and sign up for Rieva’s free Currents newsletter.
Holiday shopping picture by wavebreakmedia/Shutterstock.
Rieva Lesonsky is President of Small Business Currents, LLC, a content company focusing on small businesses and entrepreneurship. Email her at Rieva@smallbusinesscurrents.com, follow her on Twitter @Rieva, and to get the scoop on business trends and sign up for Rieva’s free Currents newsletter at SmallBusinessCurrents.com.
