Editor’s Note: If there’s one word that defines the business landscape right now, it’s uncertainty. Businesses are weighing higher borrowing costs, consumers are becoming more selective about where they spend, and investors are trying to separate short-term headlines from long-term trends. This month, our contributors, William Stern and Dean Lyulkin, examine the forces shaping the economy—from interest rates and trade policy to consumer spending and the technology sector—and explain what business leaders should be watching next.
The Fed and the Economy
Federal Reserve / Kevin Warsh
Warsh held the line, but the real story is what he didn’t say. He’s made it clear he’s not interested in the hand-holding his predecessors did. No roadmap. No forward guidance. Just trust the data, he says. That’s a break from how the Fed’s run for years, and it leaves guys like me flying blind. Maybe that’s the point. Keep the market guessing instead of tipping his hand. —William Stern
A new Fed chair who won’t tell you what he is thinking is doing his job, even if it is maddening to read. Warsh has made a point of staying quiet in public and saving his actual signal for the decision itself. That is a change from the last few years, and I think it is a healthy one. Guessing the Fed is a losing game, no matter who sits in the chair. —Dean Lyulkin
Trade, Tariffs and Energy
Tariffs / USMCA / Section 301
I don’t think the administration actually wants tariff-free North American trade to go away; USMCA preference has stayed at zero the whole time, but they clearly want leverage in these reviews.
Autos are the thing I’d watch. That exemption’s never been tested legally under a 301 successor, and if somebody challenges it, this stops being a trade story pretty fast. It becomes a pricing story, for every car on a lot.” —William Stern
Strait of Hormuz / U.S. Oil Supply
Look at the numbers instead of the headlines. Refineries just ran the hardest they have in a Q2 since 2019 — with less capacity than they had back then. Distillate exports up 30%. Jet fuel more than doubled. That’s not a country running low on supply. That’s a country cashing in on a shortage somebody else created.” —William Stern
Oil / Iran Conflict
This is the pattern I keep asking you to watch, and recently it played out in five days flat. The barrel spikes on the threat, then eases the moment the guns go quiet, even for a night or two.
I do not know if this pause holds. Nobody does, including the people negotiating it. What I do know is that the swing itself, from over 100 dollars down toward 90 in a matter of days, tells you how much of the price is fear and how much is barrels actually not getting to market. Watch the ships and the talks, not the speeches. —Dean Lyulkin
The Consumer Is Still in Charge
Restaurant Industry / Consumer Sentiment
Consumers aren’t cutting out restaurants entirely; they’re just getting a lot more selective about where that money goes. Fast casual holds up better than sit-down because people still see it as a treat they can afford, not a luxury. But traffic is the real tell right now, not price. If traffic’s soft, that’s consumers voting with their feet. —William Stern
YUM Brands / Taco Bell / KFC
The Cyclospora outbreak couldn’t have hit at a worse moment for Yum. Turner just closed the Pizza Hut sale to sharpen the story around Taco Bell and KFC, and now the flagship growth brand is the one taking the traffic hit. I’d expect the earnings call to lean heavily on KFC’s numbers to offset the noise — it’s the brand with the cleanest story right now. The real test isn’t this quarter; it’s whether guidance for the back half gets walked back because of it. —William Stern
What Investors Are Watching
Alphabet / AI Spending
Here is the trap the whole AI trade is caught in right now. Investors want the growth, but they also want the giants to stop spending as if it’s guaranteed forever. Those two wishes cannot both come true at once. Alphabet chose growth. It told the world it is doubling down, not slowing down. The market initially punished that choice, but do not confuse a higher spending number with a broken business. The 82% growth in cloud number is the real headline here. Watch what the stock does over the next month, not what it did in one afternoon.” —Dean Lyulkin
Tesla / Cash Flow
Here is what makes this one tricky and worth slowing down on. Tesla sold more cars than ever and still burned cash. So, the trouble is not the showroom. It is the math. A negative free cash flow quarter is not a rounding error.
It means the company spent more cash than it brought in. One quarter of that is not a crisis. A pattern of it is how companies get into real trouble. Tesla has the balance sheet to absorb a rough stretch. Not every company does. This is the kind of number that separates a stock story from a business, and right now Tesla’s business is the one asking the harder questions. —Dean Lyulkin
Semiconductors / Chip Stocks
A bounce feels great in the moment, and I am not going to talk you out of enjoying a green Tuesday. But one good day does not undo a 20% drawdown, nor does it answer the question that started the whole selloff.
Can a startup out of China really match the giants for a fraction of the money? Alphabet’s answer, spend more, not less, is one data point. —Dean Lyulkin
Dean Lyulkin is the founder of The Dean’s List, a San Diego–based registered investment advisory firm focused on capital markets research, portfolio strategy, and long-term wealth building. He works with investors and entrepreneurs to help them better understand how economic cycles, credit markets, and policy decisions shape real investment outcomes.
Dean frequently writes and speaks about financial markets, private credit, interest rates, and the intersection between investing and business growth.
William Stern is the founder of Cardiff, a San Diego–based small business lender focused on speed-first capital and technology-driven underwriting. Since 2004, he has helped businesses access funding more quickly through AI-powered credit models and modern lending infrastructure.
Cardiff was named America’s Favorite Small Business Lender (2024–2025) and won the Digital Bankers Global SME Banking Innovation Award (2026).
William often shares insights into small business finance, credit markets, entrepreneurship, and economic trends affecting founders and operators. He also hosts the A Stern Talk podcast, where he speaks with entrepreneurs and investors about business growth, leadership, and navigating changing market cycles.
