Rising energy prices, persistent inflation, and uncertainty about financing are putting pressure on small businesses. At the same time, investors face an increasingly complicated investment landscape, where familiar products may carry unfamiliar risks.

This month, William Stern, founder of small business lender Cardiff, examines how diesel prices and lending delays affect business owners, while Dean Lyulkin, founder of registered investment advisory firm The Dean’s List, explains why investors need to look more closely at what’s inside their exchange-traded funds.

Why Diesel Prices and Lending Delays Are Squeezing Small Businesses

For small businesses that rely on transportation, deliveries, or equipment, rising diesel prices can quickly increase operating costs. And according to Cardiff founder William Stern, diesel is a bigger concern for many business owners than the gasoline prices that dominate headlines.

“I don’t see many small business owners concerned with $4 gas,” Stern says. “It’s diesel over $6 ($8 in CA, where I live), that’s killing them.” [Prices as of posting time.]

Higher diesel costs can affect trucking companies, contractors, manufacturers, retailers, and other businesses through increased transportation expenses and supplier charges.

Stern also raises concerns about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and how much protection it would provide against another major disruption in oil supplies. “I’m not necessarily concerned with tapping the reserve, this time anyway,” he says. “Once these last 40M barrels go out, the reserve ends up at around 240M, which apparently is the lowest it’s been since ‘82.”

His concern is what happens if tensions affecting the Strait of Hormuz intensify again, potentially putting additional pressure on oil supplies and prices.

Energy Costs Add to Inflation Pressures

Stern sees the combination of elevated oil prices and persistent inflation as a challenge for both businesses and financial markets.

“It’s sticky inflation paired with oil near $100,” he says. “Traders are pulling back bets, de-risking, and tech and crypto got caught in the same trap.”

Although small businesses may not be directly affected by every stock market decline, higher energy prices and ongoing inflation can make it harder to forecast expenses, set prices, and plan investments.

When Financing Delays Become a Business Risk

Beyond energy costs, Stern says uncertainty about obtaining financing can create serious problems for businesses that need working capital.

“A small business owner can live with a higher rate if they know it’s coming,” he says. “What they can’t survive is not knowing — living in a prolonged state of limbo for weeks on end, thanks to a non-responsive bank, while there’s a gap in payroll.”

Stern says Cardiff is seeing business owners choose financing that’s available quickly, even when it costs more, rather than wait for potentially cheaper funding that may not arrive in time.

For business owners, the lesson isn’t to accept expensive financing without question. It’s to evaluate both the total cost of borrowing and the consequences of waiting.

When payroll, inventory purchases, or growth opportunities are at stake, the timing of financing can be as important as its price.

Think You Know What’s in Your ETF? Look Again.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have long appealed to investors because they offer a convenient way to buy a collection of investments, often at relatively low cost.

But Dean Lyulkin, founder of The Dean’s List, a San Diego–based registered investment advisory firm, says the ETF market has changed dramatically.

“ETF used to mean something 10 years ago: cheap, passive, diversified,” Lyulkin says. “It is now those things as often as it is an opaque wrapper around the investment strategy du jour.”

Today, ETFs can hold traditional stock indexes, actively managed bond portfolios, cryptocurrencies, options-based strategies, or leveraged positions in individual stocks. “The ETF won the great packaging war,” Lyulkin says. “Now every investor must pay close attention to what’s inside the package.”

An Index Fund Isn’t Necessarily Diversified

Investors often assume an ETF that tracks an index automatically provides broad diversification. But Lyulkin cautions that some indexes have become heavily concentrated in a relatively small number of companies.

“Gone are the days when ‘index’ necessarily meant diversification,” he says. “Market-cap-weighted indexes can become remarkably concentrated with no active decision to do so.”

In a market-cap-weighted index, larger companies account for a greater share of the fund. As their values increase, those companies can become an increasingly significant portion of an investor’s holdings.

That means a fund containing hundreds of stocks may still be heavily influenced by the performance of a handful of companies.

Lyulkin recommends examining a fund’s holdings and weightings rather than assuming that an index label guarantees diversification.

Leveraged ETFs Carry Additional Risks

Some of the most complicated ETFs are designed to amplify investment returns or move in the opposite direction of an underlying index or asset.

Leveraged ETFs generally seek to deliver a multiple of an investment’s daily performance, while inverse ETFs seek to move in the opposite direction. That daily objective is important because returns over longer periods can differ substantially from what investors expect.

“Investors see ‘2x’ or ‘3x’ and naturally think the multiple applies to long-term returns,” Lyulkin says. “It doesn’t necessarily work that way.”

Daily resets, compounding, and market volatility can produce unexpected results, even when an investor correctly anticipates the underlying investment’s longer-term direction.

Single-stock leveraged ETFs introduce additional risk because they combine leverage with exposure to just one company.

Active ETFs Require More Homework

The growth of actively managed ETFs adds another consideration: the investment manager.

Unlike traditional index ETFs, which follow a defined benchmark, active ETFs rely on managers to select investments and make portfolio decisions.

“With an index ETF, you mostly worry about holdings, weightings, concentration, expenses, and tracking,” Lyulkin says. “Active ones add people and process.”

Investors should evaluate a manager’s experience, investment approach, flexibility, and performance.

Lyulkin also warns about paying higher fees for an actively managed fund that closely resembles a conventional index fund, a practice known as closet indexing.

His advice is to understand exactly what a fund is designed to accomplish before investing.

My Takeaway

Whether you’re running a small business or managing your investments, assumptions can be expensive.

For business owners, rising diesel prices and financing delays are reminders to review operating costs, cash flow, and funding options before a problem becomes urgent. The cheapest financing isn’t necessarily the most useful if it arrives too late, but speed should never replace a careful review of borrowing costs and repayment terms.

For investors, the familiar ETF label no longer guarantees a simple, diversified investment. Understanding a fund’s holdings, strategy, costs, and risks is essential.

The common thread? Know what you’re paying for, understand the risks, and don’t wait for a crisis to ask questions

Dean Lyulkin is the founder of The Dean’s List, a San Diego–based registered investment advisory firm focused on capital markets research, portfolio strategy, and long-term wealth building. He works with investors and entrepreneurs to help them better understand how economic cycles, credit markets, and policy decisions shape real investment outcomes.

Dean frequently writes and speaks about financial markets, private credit, interest rates, and the intersection between investing and business growth.

William Stern is the founder of Cardiff, a San Diego–based small business lender focused on speed-first capital and technology-driven underwriting. Since 2004, he has helped businesses access funding more quickly through AI-powered credit models and modern lending infrastructure.

Cardiff was named America’s Favorite Small Business Lender (2024–2025) and won the Digital Bankers Global SME Banking Innovation Award (2026). 

William often shares insights on small business finance, credit markets, entrepreneurship, and economic trends affecting founders and operators. He also hosts the A Stern Talk podcast, where he speaks with entrepreneurs and investors about business growth, leadership, and navigating changing market cycles.

Rieva Lesonsky is the founder of Small Business Currents, a content company focusing on small businesses and entrepreneurship. You can find her on Twitter @Rieva, Bluesky @Rieva.bsky.social, and LinkedIn. Or email her at Rieva@SmallBusinessCurrents.com.

Photo courtesy A Chosen Soul for Unsplash+