This morning the National Retail Federation (NRF) had great news for the nation’s retailers (online and in-store). The NRF projects holiday retail sales will grow 6% to 8% over 2021 to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion. And remember, last year’s holiday sales grew 13.5% over 2020, totaling $889.3 billion. In fact, holiday retail sales have averaged an increase of 4.9% over the past 10 years.
And while consumers are shifting back to more in-store shopping, the NRF expects online and other non-store sales to increase between 10% to 12% to between $262.8 billion and $267.6 billion. That’s up from 2021’s $238.9 billion, which, the NRF says, “saw extraordinary growth in digital channels as consumers turned to online shopping to meet their holiday needs during the pandemic.” This increase is included in the total holiday spending forecast.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay notes that despite “consumers feeling the pressure of inflation and higher prices,” consumers continue to spend. And NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz adds that while “this holiday season cycle is anything but typical, the overall outlook is generally positive as consumer fundamentals continue to support economic activity.”
As we’ve told you, the NRF confirms, “The holiday shopping season kicked off earlier this year as shoppers are concerned about inflation and availability of products.”
In other good news for the economy, the NRF expects retailers will hire between 450,000 and 600,000 seasonal workers.
Due to the uncertain economy and inflationary pressure, value-minded consumers will be browsing before buying, on the hunt for discounts, deals, and promotions. But still, they plan to spend an average of $832.84 on gifts and holiday items this year.
You can find more information on the NRF’s Winter Holidays web page.