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2023 Holiday Sales Forecast

1 Mins read

A few weeks ago, I told you consumers were formulating their holiday shopping plans and that retail was roaring.

Insider Intelligence and eMarketer are out with their holiday sales retail forecast, projecting a 4.5% increase this year, representing “the sixth-fastest growth rate in holiday retail sales in the past 15 years.”

Specifically, they expect:

  • The holiday sales season will start earlier than usual as retailers will kick off holiday sales in October.
  • Strong e-commerce growth projecting an 11.3% increase in holiday revenues, almost double the 6% growth seen in 2022.

According to Adobe Analytics, Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) saw substantial growth (20%) during July’s Amazon Prime Day, and an Insider Intelligence/eMarketer analyst says that trend will continue throughout the holidays. Plus, there’s a bonus Amazon Prime Day October 10th -11th.

Intelligence/eMarketer expects BNPL to be 1% of retail sales this year and hit 1.5% by 2027.

If you’re a brick-and-mortar retailer with such an early start to the holiday retail season, you may be wondering when you can relax. Intelligence/eMarketer says, “Returns can extend holiday spending past December by drawing customers to [your] physical stores, where consumers may shop for other items.” They suggest the “marathon” will be over January 15th.

If you want to hear more, listen to their “Behind the Numbers: Reimagining Retail” podcast.

Holiday stock image by mariakray/Shutterstock

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