2025 holiday retail sales are “in line” with the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) forecast, bolstered by “strong growth in December,” according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor released earlier this week.
December Retail Monitor data experienced “a sharp surge in growth as consumers continued prioritizing holiday spending on family and friends,” says NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Continued economic momentum helped land 2025 holiday sales near the top of NRF’s forecast, reaffirming that consumers remain on solid footing.”
The NRF defines the holiday sales season as November 1 through December 31, and during that period, holiday sales grew by 4.1%. NRF’s initial forecast predicted holiday sales would increase between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024 holiday sales.
Holiday sales topped $1 trillion. The only caution is that the forecast is based on Census Bureau data, which has not yet been released.
The December sales surge was helped, in part, by a quirk in the calendar, which shifted Cyber Monday to December because of a late Thanksgiving. The Retail Monitor’s data is based on credit and debit card purchases compiled by Affinity Solutions.
Adobe Holiday Sales Report
Adobe’s holiday report underscored the success of the holiday sales season. Adobe’s 2025 Holiday Shopping Recap report, issued this month by Adobe Digital Insights, summarizes the season:
AI
AI’s momentum continued from last holiday season, driving a surge in online traffic and referrals. Shoppers grew more comfortable using AI assistants for gift inspiration, product comparisons, deal discovery, and purchase completion.
Buy Now Pay Later
BNPL adoption reached historic highs, supporting budget-conscious shoppers seeking greater flexibility during high-spend weeks. BNPL sales rose by 9.8% over 2024, to $20 billion.
Discounts
Competitive, persistent discounts played a decisive role, driving demand and fueling elevated deal-seeking behavior across a record-setting Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the broader season.
Social and affiliates/partners
These influential channels complemented traditional marketing powerhouses by driving discovery, early-stage exploration, and inspiration, and highly engaged referral traffic throughout the holiday period.
Adobe’s numbers, unlike the NRF’s, measure only digital sales, which came in at a record-breaking $257.8 billion online. This was +6.8% year-over-year growth from 2024. Adobe reports this was the first time online spending over any consecutive two-month period eclipsed 1/4 of a trillion dollars.
Mobile
Sales on mobile devices totaled $145.2 billion, up by 10.7% from 2024. Mobile shopping hit a new milestone, with 56.4% of transactions taking place on mobile devices this season.
Adobe’s 2025 Holiday Shopping Recap has a lot more information than I can report here. I strongly recommend you take a look.
Products Driving Growth
Adobe says 54% of online spending “was concentrated in three categories: electronics ($59.8 billion, apparel ($49 billion), and furniture ($31.1 billion). The fastest-growing categories included: groceries ($23.7 billion, up 10.2% YoY) and cosmetics ($8.4 billion, up 9.3% YoY).
The NRF reports December’s overall retail sales increased in six out of nine categories, “led by clothing and accessories stores (up 6.11% YoY), sporting goods, hobby, music, and book stores (up 5.16% YoY), and digital products (electronic books and games) were up 3.6% YoY.
Rieva Lesonsky is the founder of Small Business Currents, a content company focusing on small businesses and entrepreneurship. You can find her on Twitter @Rieva, Bluesky @Rieva.bsky.social, and LinkedIn. Or email her at Rieva@SmallBusinessCurrents.com.
Photo courtesy beyza yurtkuran for Unsplash+
